UK-listed businesses issued 65 profit warnings during the third quarter of 2026, the highest quarterly total since the fourth quarter of 2024.

For the sixth consecutive quarter, the biggest driver of profit warnings was policy change and geopolitical uncertainty, cited by over half of third-quarter warnings ( 54%). According to EY-Parthenon, this is the highest quarterly proportion to reference this reason in more than 25 years of the company’s analysis.

Over a third ( 35%) of warnings cited rising costs as a leading factor, which was the highest proportion recorded for this in over four years, according to EY-Parthenon, while 38% specifically cited the impact of the conflict in the Middle East.

EY-Parthenon tracks statements from publicly listed companies to the stock exchange outlining that they will report full-year profits materially below management or market expectations.

According to the research, 17% of all UK-listed businesses have issued at least one profit warning in the last 12 months.

Jo Robinson, EY-Parthenon partner and UK&I financial restructuring leader, said: “The latest figures show the variety of structural changes and challenges that companies are currently navigating. This is not a conventional economic cycle. For much of the post-war period, the economy followed a familiar demand-led boom-and-bust pattern but, since the pandemic, supply-side disruption including material and labour shortages, energy shocks, tariffs and wider geopolitical disruption has become far more significant. Companies are also facing existential questions about their business models, as consumer behaviour evolves and AI reshapes competitive positions and routes to market.”

Robinson continued: “With the Autumn Budget around the corner, profit warnings linked to policy change and uncertainty – once concentrated around fiscal events or elections – have become a regular feature of our data. Businesses have shown considerable resilience, but the pace of policy change is making forecasting, investment and capital allocation much harder.”