The study will use high-frequency firm-to-firm shipment data to track how exporters change their supply chains, identifying patterns of supplier switching, rerouting and market exits.

Dr Yujie Shi, a researcher in international trade, trade policy, and global supply chains based at Aston University, has secured a Smart Data Research UK (SDR UK) fellowship for the research.

Policymakers will be able to use findings from the research to identify vulnerabilities and design support for businesses operating in volatile trade conditions, with a focus on the most vulnerable firms and sectors. 

Tariffs have hit headlines in recent years but regulatory differences post-Brexit cause ongoing friction for companies, in addition to conflict, trade disputes or transport blockages.

Dr Shi said: “For decades, firms optimised supply chains for efficiency – lowest cost, just-in-time production, and concentration in a few global hubs. Today, geopolitics is reversing that logic. Tariffs, export controls, sanctions, regulatory divergence, and shipping disruptions are becoming persistent features rather than rare events.

“Businesses struggle less with known barriers than with unpredictable ones. When firms cannot anticipate policy or geopolitical change, they delay investment, reduce exporting, and become more domestically focused. So, the challenge for UK PLC is shifting from efficiency to resilience: helping firms diversify markets, maintain access to key inputs, and adapt quickly to shocks – without making trade prohibitively expensive.”