UK-listed companies issued 59 profit warnings in the second quarter of this year – a 20% rise compared with the same period in 2024, when there were 49 warnings.

Almost half ( 46%) of the warnings cited policy change and geopolitical uncertainty, making it the leading factor behind warnings issued in the second quarter, and the highest level recorded for this cause during 25 years of analysis.

For the report, EY-Parthenon – the strategy consulting division of EY – monitors statements made by publicly listed companies to the stock exchange outlining that they will report full-year profits materially below management or market expectations.

In other findings, the proportion of profit warnings to cite contract and order cancellations or delays remained at 40% compared with the previous quarter.

Additionally, 34% of warnings mentioned tariff-related impacts, including weaker demand, supply chain disruption and exchange-rate volatility.

EY publishes the profit warnings data on a quarterly basis.

Jo Robinson, EY-Parthenon partner and UK&I turnaround and restructuring strategy leader, said: “The latest profit warnings data reflects the scale of persistent uncertainty and how heavy it continues to weigh on UK businesses. While this uncertainty has been a recurring theme since mid-2024, it has intensified so far this year – driven largely by geopolitical tensions and policy shifts – compounding pressure on both earnings and forecasts.

“While the announcement of global tariffs has clearly played a part in amplifying uncertainty, they are just one factor among broader geopolitical and policy upheaval. These pressures are often interlinked and, combined, they are having a significant effect on companies’ confidence, decision-making and spending.

“Whether the rise in profit warnings is cyclical or structural remains to be seen, and we still expect earnings pressure to ebb and flow with the macroeconomic backdrop. As companies operate in a risk and forecasting environment that is challenging to navigate, they must adopt a measured, scenario-based approach that balances both agility and strategic clarity.”