Little change in consumer confidence ahead of Budget

The results meant that the overall index was at 110.9 for October, which represents a positive consumer confidence score.

Household finance measures for the past month deteriorated from 93.4 to 93.2, but this was accompanied by a rise of 1.4 points from 95.2 to 96.6 for household finances over the coming year, which YouGov and Cebr said could be due to September’s reported slowdown in inflation.

For job security, there was negligible movement over the previous 30 days – from 97.9 to 98.0 – but a more noticeable improvement for the next 12 months, up from 115.1 to 116.2.

Business activity measures in October, however, showed scores for the past 30 days fell by one point from 112.7 to 111.7, while scores for the year ahead fell by two points from 126.2 to 124.2.

There were also falls in both retrospective perceptions of house prices, which declined from 116.1 to 116.0 for the past 30 days, and outlook, which declined from 131.4 to 131.2 for the year ahead.

The findings are based on more than 6,000 interviews carried out every month, with respondents answering questions about household finances, property prices, job security and business activity over the past 30 days and for the coming 12 months. 

Sam Miley, managing economist and forecasting lead at Cebr, said: “The YouGov/Cebr Consumer Confidence Index has now stalled for two consecutive months, suggesting that consumer sentiment may have reached its peak for this year.

“Notably, perceptions of business activity worsened compared to last month. This was likely driven by speculation in advance of the Budget, with its flagship policies largely being seen as a negative for near-term economic growth. Next month’s data will provide further evidence of the impact of the Budget on confidence.”