Greater optimism on state of the UK economy in June

UK – Consumer confidence in the state of the UK economy crept up in June, with slight improvements in people’s personal financial situation led by reduced concerns over the impact of the war in Iran, according to the latest Consumer Sentiment Monitor from the British Retail Consortium and Opinium.

Lancaster

The data showed that people’s feeling about the state of the economy reached -43, up from -48 in May, while the rating for people’s personal financial situation was at -15, a small increase from -16 the prior month.

Personal spending overall rose from 15 to a positive score of 16 for June, although personal spending on retail dropped to five from seven in May.

Personal savings fell in June to -9 from -8 in May, the monitor said.

Concerns over the war in Iran also declined, with the proportion of people who feared the conflict in the Middle East could impact food prices falling slightly to 79% from 82% in May, with chances for  non-food items rising in price remaining at 74%.

The proportion of people who felt that energy bills could rise due to the Iranian conflict hit 80%, down from 83% in May.

The findings are based on a survey of 2,000 UK adults carried out by Opinium with results weighted and assigned a net score.

Helen Dickinson, chief executive at the British Retail Consortium, said: “Although retail spending intentions dipped, this is likely due to lower inflation expectations, rather than weakening demand. It’s all to play for as fast-moving events in the Middle East and at home could shake consumer confidence or allow the improvements to gain momentum next month. 

“Job prospects remain crucial. The loss of 66,000 retail jobs over the last year will do little to keep confidence moving in the right direction, particularly for young people and others struggling to take their first steps on the career ladder. Government policies that increase the costs and complexity of employing people, particularly the young, risk undermining both employment prospects and the recovery in consumer confidence.” 

James Endersby, chief executive at Opinium, said: “Confidence is improving, but from historically low levels. Consumers appear to be moving from crisis mode to cautious optimism. They feel slightly better about both the economy and their own finances, but continue to keep a close eye on household budgets and future uncertainty.

“The challenge for policymakers is that confidence remains highly vulnerable to external shocks. Any progress can be quickly undone if economic or geopolitical events begin to put renewed pressure on household finances.” 

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