NEWS11 December 2019

YouGov MRP poll shows narrow Tory majority

Election 2019 News Public Sector UK

UK – YouGov’s final MRP poll of the general election campaign has pointed to the Conservative Party heading for an overall small majority, but a hung parliament is still a possibility.

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The poll, using multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP), put the Conservatives on 43%, Labour on 34%, the Liberal Democrats on 12% and the Brexit Party on 3%.

This vote share would translate into 339 seats for the Tories – an overall majority of 28 – 231 for Labour, 41 for the SNP and 15 for the Lib Dems.

However, the margin of error in the poll could place the final Conservative seats from 311 to 367, meaning neither a hung parliament nor a larger Tory majority can be ruled out from the results.

MRP models the relationship between respondent demographics and their vote, and how this changes in different types of seat. The model is then applied to the demographics and political circumstances in each seat, to project results in the 632 constituencies.

The fieldwork was conducted between 4th-10th December, based on 105,612 interviews.