Greater external volatility is having an impact on public attitudes and the seasonality in consumer optimism rising and falling throughout the year – for example, peaking in the springtime – hasn’t been as prominent in recent years, the company’s data has found.

Trajectory has been tracking public optimism since 2018. According to the company’s Optimism Index, prior to 2022, there was a consistent trend of greater levels of optimism, with scores above 50 – indicating that most participants feel optimistic – and there were greater peaks and troughs resulting from changes in season.

However, the size and scale of external events in recent years, such as the Russia-Ukraine war, the cost-of-living crisis, and more recently the war in the middle east, has reduced the impact of seasonality and correlated with an overall decline in optimism. With the exception of a peak in July 2025, the index hasn’t recorded a score above 50 since November 2022 and is currently at around 45 points.  

Speaking at a virtual presentation on Thursday 30^th April, Trajectory’s managing director Tom Johnson said: “The mood overall is of pervasive gloom – we have been stuck in a very pessimistic mindset over the last few years. There are pockets of optimism but that’s a story of polarisation; there’s no consistency from group to group.”

Discussing seasonality, he said: “We consistently see optimism increase in the new year, we also consistently see a decline getting into autumn, while typically spring is a bit better than summer. But the seasonality isn’t strong enough to override things going on in society.

“Since the start of this year, which has been busy on the international front, we have seen a rise in external volatility – this appears to be influencing consumer attitudes.”

More polarisation

Another change the index has recorded over time has been increased polarisation in terms of levels of optimism between demographic groups.

“In 2018, there was almost no polarisation. A score of 50 points, across the population as a whole, at a top line level, was quite consistent for everybody,” said Harry Baker, senior data analyst at Trajectory, explaining that a score of 50 points today is now more likely to comprise of a score of one certain group of consumers with 30 points and another with 70.

“This has implications for brands because while pessimism is quite prominent across the population as a whole, the fact that it is so polarised means that there are groups of consumers behaving quite differently to the average and spending a lot more, so this is something to keep an eye on,” said Baker.

Beyond the economy

Additionally, the research has found that, over time, factors other than economic confidence are increasingly playing a role in public optimism. In 2018, for example, there was a stronger correlation between optimism and economic confidence, but post-Covid, trust, wellbeing and nostalgia are becoming more strongly correlated with optimism – for example, as nostalgia increased, so did pessimism.

There is also a correlation between higher levels of optimism and receptiveness to artificial intelligence – the index finds a gulf between the most and least pessimistic people about the use of AI (responding to the statement ‘AI will make my life easier’). “Optimistic consumers are open to trying new things and they recognise the benefits of innovation,” said Tom Johnson.

Optimism and pessimism are also interacting strongly with political outlooks. More optimistic people are more likely to indicate support for the current government, but pessimism means that voter alternatives are more likely, according to Trajectory’s data. Those who are very pessimistic are more likely to indicate support for alternatives such as Reform as there is a link between pessimism and populism. “The idea that we are on a journey of national decline and that we need radical change; that speaks to pessimism,” said Johnson, discussing how the party has adopted this narrative.

Thinking of the public only as financial consumers can mean misunderstanding the bigger picture. For example, the company’s research has found that those who are more optimistic are more likely to agree that they want to own things to impress others, and are also more likely to want to try new things.

“If we really want to understand what’s motivating people to act in the economy, we have to look beyond the economy,” said Johnson. “We have to look at the wider aspects of people’s lives.”

• Trajectory has collected consumer sentiment data from a nationally representative sample of 1,500 UK consumers since January 2018. The Optimism Index metric tracks how people feel about the short-term outlook.