NEWS3 July 2024

Survation MRP model estimates large Labour majority

2024 elections News Public Sector UK

UK – Survation has predicted that Labour will win the UK general election with 484 out of 650 seats, based on MRP modelling.

polling station sign

The multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) model’s implied vote share predicts that Labour will win around 42% of the vote, with the Conservative Party on around 23%.

The prediction, published on Tuesday night ( 2nd July) estimates that Labour will gain around 248 seats from the Conservatives.

The analysis estimates a range of 447 to 517 seats for Labour, a range of 34 to 99 for the Tories and a range of 49 to 73 for the Liberal Democrats.

Survation’s MRP also shows Labour winning around 38 of Scotland’s 57 seats, with the SNP taking 10 (range of 3 to 21 ).

MRP estimates the vote share of each party in each constituency. It constructs a statistical model that summarises how voting intention differs depending on the characteristics of individual respondents and the area in which they live. The model is then used to generate estimates of the balance of vote intentions among different types of people living in different areas.

Most of the data for Survation’s MRP model was collected in June, with a small number of older constituency polls left in to improve coverage. In total, the methodology used responses from 34,558 adults in Great Britain, with fieldwork (interviews conducted online and by phone) primarily undertaken between 15th June–1st July.

Other MRP predictions previously published by polling companies have all have estimated a Labour majority, but pollsters have differed in their estimations of the size of majority.

An average of all voting intention polls (by British Polling Council members) estimates Labour at around 40% of the vote ( 35-45%) and the Conservatives at around 21% ( 16-26%).

MRP models are uncertain about vote shares, meaning that the leading party in each seat still can still lose, while traditional polls have a margin of error of two or three percentage points either side.

Additionally, the most recent polls from More in Common, Opinium and YouGov have suggested about one in eight voters in Britain is undecided about how to vote.