NEWS30 June 2020

Consumer confidence rises in June as lockdown eases

Covid-19 News Trends UK

UK – Consumer confidence is heading towards positive territory as the UK winds down its Covid-19 lockdown, according to research from YouGov and the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR).

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The study found that consumer confidence was at 98.5 for June, a two-and-a-half point increase on May and close to a positive score of greater than 100.

The figures come ahead of a wider lifting of lockdown conditions in England on 4th July, with cinemas, pubs, restaurants and cafes allowed to open their doors, and comes weeks after non-essential shops were allowed to restart their businesses. Other nations in the UK will also ease lockdown later in July.

All eight of the metrics measured in the YouGov/CEBR study rose in June, with confidence in household finances over the past month rising from 86.5 to 88 in June, and confidence in household finances for the year ahead was at 89.7 points, up from 87.6.

Confidence in house prices over the past 30 days was at 94, up from 92.1, and confidence in house prices over the next year was in positive territory with 103.4.

Belief in job security over the year ahead was at 111, up from 109.7, while job security for the past 30 days was rated at 85.8 compared with 83.6 in May.

The public’s perception of the level of business activity increased in June from 94.4 to 101.1, and estimations on companies' activity for the next 12 months was rated at 114.9.

Despite the rise in consumer confidence, 82% of respondents believed a recession or depression would occur within a year.

Oliver Rowe, director of reputation research at YouGov, said: “A second month of gains is definitely reason for optimism, and the economy is slowly picking up pace after lockdown.

“But with millions of staff enrolled on the furlough scheme and personal finances continuing to be a major worry for people, time will tell how robust this recovery is.”

Kay Neufeld, head of macroeconomics at the CEBR, said: “Consumer confidence is still nine points off its February level, highlighting the long recovery still ahead of us.

“The outlook on household finances and job security, in particular, could prove too optimistic if we see a spike in the joblessness rate later in the summer as the government starts to withdraw the furlough scheme.”