Big Short to win Best Picture Oscar, says big data

The company used look-a-like modelling to generate its predictions, analysing the behaviour of around 32,000 people working in the Los Angeles film industry with similar characteristics to Oscar voters. That is: 94% caucasian, 77% male, with an average age of 62.

Exponential has correctly predicted the Best Picture Oscar winner for the last three years using the same technique. 

This year’s predictions saw Spotlight come in second, with the Revenant in third and Room in fourth. Winners will be announced at the Oscars ceremony this Sunday. 

“We know the typical Oscar voter is a frequent traveller, invests heavily in home theatre systems, follows tennis and baseball, is concerned about privacy and Social Security, buys expensive watches, and drives a European luxury car,” said Bryan Melmed, Exponential’s VP of Insights.

“Thus, the film interests of people with similar interests give us a strong clue as to where votes would go.

“Whilst this is a bit of fun and mainly of benefit to people who fancy a wager, it provides marketers with an important illustration of the power of look-a-like modelling to predict consumer behaviour."