FEATURE2 November 2016

The Guessing Game

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Features Impact Opinion Public Sector

At a time when shock election results are becoming commonplace, Justin Charlton-Jones, managing director of Blinc, and James Endersby, chief executive of Opinium, go head to head to discuss the respective merits of predictive markets and opinion polls for forecasting outcomes

Justin Charlton-Jones:

In both the Scottish Referendum in 2014 and the General Election of 2015, opinion polls suggested that the final result was too close to call. In fact, both votes resulted in decisive outcomes, and the poll results ...