America the unsure

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The American character to date has been marked by a sincere optimism. From the first 16th-century colonists to the waves of immigrants that arrived since, crossing oceans to set up life in a new land required an unusual belief in positive outcomes and a heightened tolerance for uncertainty. These traits put freedom in the hands of the people, men on the moon, and the digital world at our fingertips.

But this intrinsic optimism has been taking a battering. Across the political spectrum, there’s a sense of unease about where the country’s going and its place in the world.

By almost all measures, the US economy is going great guns. Unemployment is at its lowest point in 50 years, consumer spending is strong, wages are growing and GDP is running at around a healthy 3%. Yet, according to Gallup, only 31% of Americans are satisfied with the way things are going.

To get under the skin of this, Bamm interviewed a number of thinkers, including the Yale psychologist Paul Bloom; one of the economists who worked on Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, Christopher Carroll; and the Wharton neuroscientist Michael Platt.

Though the country as a whole has fully recovered economically, the echoes of the Great Recession can still be felt – something economists call the ‘scarring effect’. A decade after the downturn, consumers are still more conservative in their approach to savings and credit. The savings rate sits at 6.5%, more than twice its level in 2007, and it’s hardly moved over the past few years. One reason is very human – our brains are, in a large part, wired to monitor uncertainty and learn from it.

It perhaps shouldn’t be surprising that one of the most uncertain and chaotic events in most Americans’ lifetimes still plays upon behaviours today.

Today, the top 1% of earners own around 40% of all US wealth and the country’s top 200,000 families own about as much wealth as the bottom 90% of all Americans combined. The country hasn’t lived this far apart since the Gilded Age. This isn’t just about a wealth gap, however. One of the lasting effects of the recession has been an increasing anxiety divide, or ‘uncertainty inequality’.

Looking at CDC data, stress levels for low-income consumers grew noticeably in 2008/09 and continued to increase at roughly the same pace up to today. For high-income consumers, there was little to no effect. Today, low-income consumers are 12 times more likely than those with high incomes to feel psychological stress. The disappearance of traditional construction and manufacturing jobs, the slow elimination of healthcare and retirement benefits, and feelings of structural unfairness that were magnified from the recession are all contributing to a feeling of uncertainty.

Most Americans also feel that the country’s place in the world is becoming unclear, with China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran casting shadows on the national psyche. A recent Pew study found that 60% of the country believes that, over the next 30 years, the US will be less important in the world. China is perceived as the big threat, with 62% believing that the amount of US debt China holds is a serious problem for the country.

Despite the current administration’s tepid approach, climate change is casting another shadow. According to a recent Yale University poll, 73% of US consumers believe global warming is happening. This shouldn’t be surprising – the increase in unusual weather events, such as last year’s wildfires, is being felt by communities across the country.

The recent talk in marketing has focused on brands taking positions on critical issues, even those with a political edge. In a country where feelings of injustice are increasing, there’s merit in that approach. But there are also stories to be told about America – its history, diversity and strengths. The human mind hates uncertainty, and will go to great lengths to reduce it. In such uncertain times, brands might want to take the opportunity to help consumers do this. They might want to inject some optimism back into America.

Mark Potts is global strategy director at Bamm