Prediction and planning in an uncertain world  looks at the approaches that produce some of the most meaningful predictions and how they can be used by business.

Recommendations include an interdisciplinary approach bringing together risk, research, operations and planning functions; avoiding over-reliance on a single methodology; transparency on the limitations of indicators and models and a focus on external factors. 

The Delphi Group is MRS’s think tank consisting of some of the most respected thinkers in marketing and research. Among the expert views in this report are from Jake Steadman, senior director of research, international & agency at Twitter; Nick Bonney, managing director at ABA Research and Phil Sutcliffe, director of offer and innovation at Kantar TNS UK. 

These are accompanied by case studies on lessons learned when integrating research and insight into forecasting strategies from Jessica Salmon, head of research at O2, Sarah Bennison, chief marketing officer of Nationwide Building Society and Nick North, director of audiences at the BBC.

Jane Frost, CEO of MRS, said: “Forecasting, trend spotting and future-proofing are perennially on our minds but recent events and the responses to them – two general elections, Brexit and an unprecedented number of terror attacks – have brought the challenges of mapping the future into even sharper focus. 

“Businesses need to be prepared to be surprised as they look to the future – if you don’t encounter the unexpected then your process has not been thorough enough.  Meaningful forecasting means becoming comfortable – and transparent – about uncertainty: a huge challenge for many and one we hope this report helps to address.”