Largest fall in UK consumer confidence since spring

UK – Consumer confidence in the UK has seen its biggest fall since April, led by concerns over personal finances and house prices, according to the latest Consumer Confidence Index from YouGov and the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr).

House door key

The October version of the index showed that the overall consumer confidence score dropped 1.1 points to 105.1, with scores greater than 100 representing positive consumer sentiment.

Perceptions of house prices in the past month had the biggest fall, declining three points to 108.9, the lowest since January 2024. Views of how prices will change in the year ahead dropped 1.2 points to 127.3.

Household finance metrics also fell, with people reported decreasing confidence in their personal finances over the past 30 days, down 1.1 points to 84.4.

The outlook for personal finances over the next year also declined, from 83.9 in September to 83.3 in October.

Employees were also less likely to report feeling secure in their roles over the past month, with a 1.3-point reduction in confidence leading to a score of 91.3. Employees’ perceptions of future job security also worsened, with scores slumping from 117.4 to 115.9. 

Perceptions of business activity over the past 30 days rose by 1.1 points to 110.4, albeit with a one-point reduction to the score for business activity in the year ahead, hitting a score of 119.4.

The figures are based on monthly data collected from more than 6,000 interviews.

William Ulstein, UK chief executive at YouGov, said: “This data was collected before the chancellor’s budget on 28th October. We know from our other work that John Healey’s first budget is seen as fairest in five years. 

“Healey promised breathing space; the decline across almost all measures in October’s consumer confidence data suggests that breathing space is required, so it will be interesting to see how these figures change next month.” 

Sam Miley, head of forecasting and thought leadership at Cebr, said: “With inflation on the up, the path for interest rates is higher than it would have otherwise been. Indeed, the Bank of England may well hike rates in the first week of November.

“This likely contributed to the weaker sentiment for house price growth shown this month, which drove the overall index decline. Elsewhere, the financial sentiment metrics reached near-term lows, as households felt the pinch from higher prices in essential categories, including fuel and energy.” 

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