NEWS24 September 2015

Global ad forecast cut for 2015


UK — The latest Consensus Ad Forecast from Warc shows that global adspend growth expectations have fallen since January with the anticipated 5.1% growth now reduced to a 3.8% rise for 2015.

India is expected to see the strongest annual rise in adspend this year, by 13.4%, although this marks a minor downgrade of 0.2pp from January.

The US (-0.6pp), China (-2.5pp), Brazil (-1.5pp), Canada (-1.8pp), Italy (-0.3pp) and Russia (-15.0pp) have seen their adspend outlook downgraded.

All media, barring newspapers and magazines, are predicted to record year-on-year growth in 2015, with internet expected to see the greatest adspend rise, up 17.1% after a +1.1pp revision. TV growth was cut by 1.8pp, with global TV ad revenue now forecast to rise just 0.8% this year following weaker results in the US and China.

James McDonald, research analyst at Warc, said: “The latest consensus results demonstrate just how quickly economic tides can turn, especially among emerging markets. Yet despite the more challenging conditions, adspend growth is still widely anticipated this year and next, demonstrating the robust nature of the advertising industry.”

Warc’s Consensus Ad Forecast is based on a weighted average of adspend predictions at current prices from ad agencies, media monitoring companies, analysts, Warc and other industry bodies.

Sources include Carat, eMarketer, GroupM, Magna Global, Nikkei Advertising Research Institute (NARI), Pitch-Maddison, Pivotal Research Group and ZenithOptimedia.