Trajectory chief executive Tom Johnson told an online briefing that recent spikes in inflation “isn’t typical episodic oscillations in prices”.

“It is clear that the world is changing in a way that makes one of the fundamentals of our consumer economy, abundant, cheap stuff, harder to maintain,” he said.

Poor economic news in the months ahead, driven partly, but not wholly, by the war in Iran, “represents something of the end of an era”, said Johnson, with factors including American economic isolationism, the decline of international institutions, political polarisation, and broader de-globalisation and protectionism.

“This probably isn’t just a short-term thing, although inflation might fall again,” Johnson added. “The structural foundations of our recent era of cheaper stuff appear to be ending, and propelled not just by domestic factors but by some geopolitical things as well.”

Divergence between different sections of the population was therefore likely, Johnson added, stating that “polarisation absolutely defines our moment” in how this economic era is experienced.

Johnson said that the 1990s and 2000 are now seen as a “golden age” of cheaper goods and new standards of living, with less household spending spent on food, housing and household bills, which freed up money for leisure spending.

However, price rises were impacting on people’s priorities. “The last few decades have seen consumers start to prioritise, both financially, in terms of time and in their values, the ‘fun’ stuff over essentials,” Johnson explained. “It is going to be harder to do that.”

Some trends might endure in this new era, Johnson said, such as a focus on everyday thrift, value hunting and price over value. “In an era of perpetual sticker shock, consistently higher prices, that impasse might never really fade,” Johnson added.

Johnson also mentioned the “lipstick effect” whereby people focus on little luxuries, as well as a return of conspicuous consumption as luxury goods become less affordable and available to the majority.

An ageing society would likely cause bigger pressures on resources longer term, and there was significant differences between how some sections of society viewed inflation compared with others, with Johnson noting that “the difference between an inflation spike of 11% and one of 4% to 5% is that the impact is much more variated”.

However, he noted that consumers were seemingly better placed to ride turbulent economic waves, adding: “While consumers are braced for economic pain in the short term, by some readings they do seem to be in a better place than they were in 2022.”