NEWS9 September 2016

BrainJuicer launches System1 Politics

Behavioural economics New business News North America Public Sector

UK –  BrainJuicer has announced the creation of a specialist unit, based on its behavioural science model,  to improve the prediction of election results called System1 Politics which will be run by Tom Ewing. 

It is launching a US election prediction site which it will update weekly until the election.  Every week a fresh wave of data will be reported, focusing in particular on the changes in ‘feeling’ which will ultimately predict the winner. It will also present a sample of consumers’ raw emotional reaction to the two candidates. 

'Feeling’ is one heuristic of the 3F’s BrainJuicer uses – ‘fame’ and ‘fluency’ being the other two.

Ewing said: "People make choices at a gut level and Fame, Feeling & Fluency are the shortcuts that guide them. Our data shows there’s nothing to choose between Trump and Clinton on Fame – they're both remarkably well-known – but Trump has had a consistent advantage on Fluency, defining the race with simple and distinctive images, policies and phrases, from the border wall to ‘crooked Hillary'.

"So at this basic level, the election boils down to whether Clinton can overcome that by building a lead on Feeling, the gut emotional response that guides decisions. If Trump can close that gap – by making people feel better about him or worse about Clinton – he wins." 

At the Market Research Society conference earlier this year, when Ewing spoke about using this methodology to predict elections, he predicted Clinton would secure the US presidency.