The turn of the year is always a time for hope and positivity, but the start of 2014 seems to be overflowing with optimism. It’s probably inaccurate to describe it as a complete return of confidence – that remains long overdue, after five or so years of economic stagnation. But there’s a sense, in the wider economy and within the marketing and market research communities, that this year won’t be quite so hard going; that things are looking up; that everything will turn out OK in the end.

Stuart Butler-Smith does more than most this issue to maintain the new year cheer. His quarterly financial analysis, on p56, highlights the positive steps research agencies took last year to address the challenges of the marketplace. Keep it up – he says – and a return to respectable levels of growth might not be too far off.

Similarly, the results of EFAMRO’s quarterly survey, on p57, show a noticeable rise in optimism throughout Europe. Most firms still expect no change year on year, but a 10-point increase in those expecting better things is not to be sniffed at.

Interestingly, if you look at the complete results on efamro.com, you’ll see that the same survey respondents are much more bullish about the prospects for their own businesses: almost half of them think revenues will be higher, compared with just 28% when asked about the industry as a whole.

This type of disparity – an overconfidence in how we think we, as individuals, will perform compared with everyone else – is familiar to psychologists and students of the behavioural sciences, and a prime example of why people are unreliable witnesses to their own actions and abilities. Our special report, on p26, explores this and other issues. It considers the way science is changing our understanding of consumer behaviour, and what the discoveries mean for the market research approaches we all currently rely upon.

Meanwhile, on p18, we have a case study on the pros and cons of confidence. YO! Sushi founder Simon Woodroffe used his “swagger and sheer chutzpah” to get the restaurant business off the ground. But, he admits, he could have done with a little less self-belief and a little more research guidance to help steer him clear of some of the problems he encountered along the way.

The moral of Woodroffe’s story? Overconfidence can land you in trouble at times. It’s something we at Impact will be sure to keep in mind as we celebrate winning the Launch of the Year prize at the International Content Marketing Awards in December. It’s a real source of pride, and a great confidence-booster. But, of course, our readers are our most important critics. So please continue to share your thoughts on the magazine.

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