OPINION7 November 2012

Poll watch – I should have stuck to my guns


In the latest installment of her 2012 Presidential Election watch, Emily Hunt offers her verdict on the research data that influenced her analysis on the race to be US President and the ups and downs of the two contenders.

Back in October, I wrote that the race for President was not the horse race that the press and pundits were making it out to be. President Obama was on a clear trajectory to win – not by as much as he had won in 2008, but still a clear path. I wrote that he would win the popular vote by 2-ish and win the Electoral College

I should have stuck to my guns

After the first debate in Denver, and President Obama’s slip in the numbers in the weeks after, I got nervous. I shouldn’t have. The fundamental thing is that as both a Democrat and Cubs fan, I am used to last minute, bitter disappointments. Defeats snatched from the jaws of victory. The Steve Bartman incidents of both the sports and political worlds.

President Obama is staying in the White House. The Senate is staying Democratic, and with more women taking seats in 2013 than ever before. And the House will remain in Republican hands. Now that it’s all over, I hope that we have more of those classy moments to come. But, as I am used to disappointments, I’m not necessarily going to hold my breath.

Emily Hunt is director of insights at Edelman Berland, Edelman’s insights and analytics subsidiary. She is a dual US/UK citizen, and has a strong interest in politics on both sides of the Atlantic. Emily has an MA in Political Campaign Management from New York University and started her career as a political operative in the US before moving into polling. You can follow her on Twitter at @emilyinpublic or find out more about her here.



12 years ago

Whilst the BBC et al tried to drag the suspense out , Paddy Power paid out their Obama backers last week and Betfair had him winning at 1/4 on, on Monday...

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12 years ago

Why are we reading articles from a firm that wishes they could have predicted the actual outcome? Speak to YouGov and visit their site to read the exceptional analysis from Peter Kellner in the run up and post the election. Instead of reading about "I wish", we could be learning about how they absolutely nailed it.

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