Chaos and the quest to understand human behaviour

“Mathematicians are pattern searchers,” said Oxford University’s Marcus du Sautoy, in his MRS Conference keynote. “That’s where mathematicians and researchers have so much in common.”

Marcus du Sautoy, professor of mathematics at Oxford University, likes Pi – both the mathematical constant and the film of the same name.

His MRS Conference talk began with a clip from the movie, which follows a mathematician’s descent into insanity while trying to look for mathematical patterns in the Jewish Torah.

“Mathematicians are pattern searchers,” du Sautoy explains. “That’s where mathematicians and researchers have so much in common.”

Max Cohen, the protagonist of Pi, believes that “there are patterns everywhere in nature”, you just have to how to see them. But that way lies madness, as Cohen discovers.

In the era of big data, it’s tempting to go looking for those patterns that can help us understand and ultimately predict human behaviour. But du Sautoy’s talk was both a lesson and a warning about the danger of seeing patterns where none exist, and in thinking that all patterns are predictable.

The pattern behind prime numbers, for example, continues to elude the brightest minds in the field, du Sautoy said. There is no way of knowing where, in the sequence of numbers, a prime will occur. “They seem to have a very random behaviour, but they can’t be random,” du Sautoy said. “A prime is a prime.”

Elsewhere in maths there are instances where a pattern looks to have been established, fooling you into thinking that you can predict where it goes next, only for it to end up “somewhere unexpected”, du Sautoy said.

And yet randomness can be understood thanks to a branch of mathematics called chaos theory, which recognises that there are systems that are so delicate that small changes in variables can send them spiralling out of control.

“With chaos theory, it’s not necessarily true that you can’t make predictions,” says du Sautoy, “but it is important to know when you can and when you can’t.”

Earth’s weather system is a good example of this, he said. Five-day forecasts can be reasonably accurate, du Sautoy explained, but attempting to make predictions into the sixth, seventh or eighth day and beyond becomes nigh-on impossible, with too many possible variables to consider and too many possible outcomes.

All of which seems to apply to the study of human behaviour. If a researcher were to ask any one of us what we would buy if we went shopping tomorrow, or how we would vote if an election were held the next day, we – and thus they – might be able to predict our behaviour with some accuracy. But next week, next month, next year? Who’s to say.

We hope you enjoyed this article.
Research Live is published by MRS.

The Market Research Society (MRS) exists to promote and protect the research sector, showcasing how research delivers impact for businesses and government.

Members of MRS enjoy many benefits including tailoured policy guidance, discounts on training and conferences, and access to member-only content.

For example, there's an archive of winning case studies from over a decade of MRS Awards.

Find out more about the benefits of joining MRS here.

0 Comments


Display name

Email

Join the discussion

Newsletter
Stay connected with the latest insights and trends...
Sign Up
Latest From MRS

Our latest training courses

Our new 2025 training programme is now launched as part of the development offered within the MRS Global Insight Academy

See all training

Specialist conferences

Our one-day conferences cover topics including CX and UX, Semiotics, B2B, Finance, AI and Leaders' Forums.

See all conferences

MRS reports on AI

MRS has published a three-part series on how generative AI is impacting the research sector, including synthetic respondents and challenges to adoption.

See the reports

Progress faster...
with MRS 
membership

Mentoring

CPD/recognition

Webinars

Codeline

Discounts