NEWS4 September 2019

No-deal Brexit impact analysed

Brexit Finance News Public Sector UK

UK – The UK leaving the EU without a deal would result in a ‘period of prolonged uncertainty’, according to a report from King’s College-based research initiative UK in a Changing Europe.

Brexit EU referendum2_crop

The paper, which has drawn on input from academic experts, analyses the potential impact of leaving the EU on 31st October and beginning to trade with member states as a third country and on World Trade Organisation (WTO) terms.

While the report notes that is impossible to accurately predict a situation that has no historical precedent, leaving the EU without a deal in place would result in political and economic uncertainty, it says.

Some of the key issues highlighted in the report are:

Goods: Almost half of all UK goods exports go to the EU, and these would face border checks where none currently exist and new tariffs applied to "a substantial proportion".

Northern Ireland: Goods moving to Ireland would face checks, particularly animals and food products, which account for a third of Northern Ireland’s exports to Ireland. In many cases, Northern Irish businesses in the food sector would face tariffs.

Economy: The economy could fall into recession, although its "depth and severity would remain uncertain". Overall economic impact would depend on the extent of trade disruption, consumer and business confidence, and any government and Bank of England response.

Security: The UK would lose access to EU databases and other systems including the European Arrest Warrant, the Schengen Information System and Europol.

Reputation: The UK may not be legally liable to pay the remainder of its £39bn Brexit bill, but the EU could withdraw some of its unilateral mitigations, for example with respect to road transport.

Future relationship: It would be more difficult for the UK to negotiate any future deal with the EU after leaving without a deal.

Professor Anand Menon, director, the UK in a Changing Europe, said: "Clearly it is difficult to make hard and fast predictions about what the implications of no deal will be. Equally, its immediate impact might not be as severe as some people are claiming.

"What our report makes clear is that leaving without a deal will have significant negative consequences for the UK economy. Nor will it mark the end of Brexit, merely herald in the start of negotiations that promise to be significantly more difficult than those we have witnessed to date."