NatCen analyses ‘left-behind’ voters

Almost two-thirds ( 64%) of ‘left-behind patriots’ don’t trust a government of any party to place the interests of the nation first, compared to almost 45% of people overall, according to analysis of British Social Attitudes survey data.  

The group is more common in England and Wales than Scotland, voted for the UK to leave the European Union and is highly concerned about immigration, according to the analysis.

Trust in politicians is low amongst this group, with 85% of ‘left-behind patriots’ expecting politicians to ‘almost never’ tell the truth when they are in a tight corner, compared to 58% of people overall.

The analysis also suggests around a quarter ( 26%) of this group intends not to vote in the election.

Lovisa Moller, director of analysis at NatCen, said: “These voters are highly concerned about immigration and voted decisively for Brexit. They are particularly key for Reform UK, making up a third of their early supporter base. But a key question is whether they will actually turn up to the polling station. They have extremely low faith in politics and around a quarter of them have indicated they are unlikely to vote.”    

Moller added: “The falling levels of trust in politics among Brexit voters suggests it will be hard to mobilise this political segment in the upcoming election. While Reform UK might have provided a political alternative for some, the left-wing economic views of this segment means that it’s not a clean match.”  

‘Left-behind patriots’ are one of the voter types identified in research led by Professor Sir John Curtice, senior research fellow at NatCen, and Moller.

The research classified groups of voters based on their responses to 12 questions on social class, gender, level of education, where they live in the UK and views on issues such as the economy, immigration and climate change. 

The largest group of voters, ‘middle Britons’, accounts for 26% of the electorate, according to the research.