NEWS4 June 2015

ComRes launches Voter Turnout Model

News UK

UK — In the first post-election poll using its new Voter Turnout Model, the ComRes/Daily Mail telephone poll puts the Conservatives with a 12 point lead over Labour.

As the British Polling Council begins its enquiry to look into possible causes of bias in the pre-election polling, ComRes is conducting its own internal review of what happened.

While the company said its review is still ongoing, it has applied its Voter Turnout Model to this poll which has Conservative 41%, Labour 29%, Lib Dem 8%, UKIP 10%, SNP 5%, Green 5% and others 3%.

ComRes said using the model would provide a more accurate reflection of the actual voting public.

The model simulates the likelihood of each respondent to vote based on their age and social grade. This has been calculated using actual General Election turnout data on a constituency level and matches it with the known age and social grade profiles of the constituencies taken from the Census. 

Tom Mludzinski, head of political polling, ComRes said: “The polls at May’s General Election tended to overestimate Labour’s support. Our review has uncovered that much of Labour’s backing was coming from groups that were less likely to actually turnout and vote than others. We’ve used this, along with official turnout data to build a Voter Turnout Model which more accurately predicts who is more and less likely to vote.

“The new Labour leader would do well to learn similar lessons, and concentrate on targeting those groups who are actually going to vote and where Labour has struggled in the past.”