Agencies pick X Factor winner ahead of grand finale

This time the prediction came from Alterian, which used its SM2 analytics tool to track positive mentions about the finalists. It tipped Matt Cardle to come out on top as he had notched up the highest amount of positive mentions, 31% of all comments, from the 200,000 conversations the company had tracked since the show started.

Alterian’s success is further evidence that social media analysis can give a decent steer on the outcome of big national contests, as it did during the parliamentary vote in May.

Elsewhere, more traditional research was used to forecast the result ahead of Sunday’s final. YouGov was commissioned by The Sun to poll 1,566 viewers, and the firm nailed the final four: Cardle, followed by Rebecca Ferguson, One Direction and Cher Lloyd.

But perhaps it was just an easy contest to call. Official voting figures published today by producers of The X Factor show that over the course of the series Cardle was the clear leader from the second week onwards. Runner-up Rebecca Ferguson stayed in second place from week six onwards in the 11-week long competition.