VisitBritain’s head of research and forecasting, Richard Nicholls, had just returned from a holiday in the South of France when we met in London – a city he calls a revenue-generating honey pot when it comes to UK tourism.

Nicholls is a little embarrassed that he did not take a ‘stay-cation’ in the country he promotes but, as he says, he enjoys many beautiful places around Britain as part of his day job, citing trips to Wales and Cumbria among recent highlights.  

Tourism is worth £126.9bn a year to Britain’s economy, and research plays a crucial role in helping VisitBritain boost visitor numbers and revenue. Travel is the sixth largest export industry with overseas (inbound) visitors contributing £22.1bn in 2015.

VisitBritain – which includes VisitEngland – sits within the Department for Culture, Media & Sport and its main source of insight is the long-standing International Passenger Survey (IPS) conducted by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

This survey has collected information from people entering and leaving the UK since 1961, with the latest data revealing that 36.8m visits were made to the UK in the year to the end of August, up 4% on the same period in 2015.  

“We suffered from a strong pound last year and saw an increase in the types of visits where people do not spend as much – for example when people visit family,” says Nicholls.  “Holiday visits are still down year on year, but we are seeing spend increase as the pound devalues following the EU referendum. European visitors tend not to spend as much because they often do not visit for as long as long-haul travellers, who have a higher spend per visitor.”

country perceptions

Much of the insight offered to VisitBritain is being used to change perceptions of the country.

The agency uses GfK’s Nation Brands Index, which measures the reputation and brand image of 50 countries and looks at areas such as tourism, culture and heritage. The UK is rated as the number three nation brand behind the US and Germany. 

While Britain is clearly doing well on the index, VisitBritain is trying to change one negative perception – that Britain could be more welcoming. 

“Britain rates OK on welcoming visitors but it does not score so highly in this area compared to its culture, history and heritage,” says Nicholls. “The 2012 Olympics helped to change people’s views and we have built on that. There is also a view that it is difficult to get visas, plus a reality that Britain is expensive compared with other countries that people might consider visiting, such as Greece or Portugal. We are working to address these areas too following the Brexit vote.”

Since the EU referendum, VisitBritain has been amending its marketing messaging to stress the country’s value for money, as sterling’s worth has dipped. It takes a strategic approach to marketing to tourists from different countries to ensure its limited public funding is spent wisely.

Ipsos MORI has carried out extensive research for VisitBritain into what influences travellers’ decisions, why they choose to come to Britain or not and – if they do want to visit – when they book.

The data from 20 key markets shows that the Chinese tend to leave booking holidays to nearer the time they want to travel, while Americans prefer to book trips many months in advance. The booking lead time information helps VisitBritain to plan marketing campaigns.

Ipsos Connect’s research director Tara Beard-Knowland says the idea is to get to the bottom of what motivates people to come to Britain. “This means knowing the competing destinations for long-haul and short-haul trips,” she says. “It’s a large-scale, strategic piece of work and the insights will feed into VisitBritain’s strategy for years to come.”

Additional research by Ipsos MORI has discovered that the British weather is not always a turn-off for tourists when they are deciding on a destination. For people who spend most of their lives in hot temperatures – for example travellers from the Gulf region or India – Britain’s temperate climate and four distinct seasons prove attractive.

long-term planning

What really excites Nicholls is the long-term tracking of visitor trends and forecasting what might happen to tourism in the future. Before joining VisitBritain, he spent eight years at consumer trends company Future Foundation, as head of intelligence and economics.

“A lot of our long-term insights come from the ONS but much of that data is about the recent past,” he says. “We want to be forward-looking and know what is going to happen next.”

To help with forecasting, VisitBritain subscribes to the Tourism Decision Metrics service from Oxford Economics. This dynamic tool for analysing tourism trends allows Nicholls and his team to conduct global analysis in minutes using tables, charts and maps. There are more than 40,000 indicators of tourism activity including information on why someone made a trip, their mode of transport and visitor spending patterns. There are also economic and demographic briefings on almost 200 markets.

“According to Oxford Economics, the forecast is for a 7% growth in visitor numbers to Britain in 2017 with more leisure visits because of the weak pound,” says Nicholls. “The data reveals which countries are in recession or struggling economically so we know not to expect so many visitors from those markets.”

VisitBritain also obtains travel industry business intelligence from ForwardKeys.com to inform its tactical marketing campaigns. This data includes details of air reservations made by more than 150,000 online and offline travel agencies around the world and the information is updated every hour.

“The outlook is good for British tourism but you cannot plan for unforeseen circumstances such as a terrorist attack or a volcanic ash cloud from Iceland. It is the unpredictability that makes the tourism industry so challenging.”

This year VisitBritain has been given responsibility for business tourism and its head of business visits and events, Chris Foy, has the brief to attract more conferences to these shores. These events bring large numbers of foreign delegates who can be persuaded to extend their stay in Britain.

VisitBritain’s knowledge of business travellers was patchy, so it added some specific questions to the ONS’ IPS survey. It now knows not only whether someone has visited the UK on business but what type of activity they were involved in. Did they attend a conference or a small team meeting, for example?

Beyond the capital

Many business and holiday visitors come to London but rarely venture to other parts of the country. 

The government is keen to address this and created the £40m Discover England Fund initiative running under the VisitEngland banner. The money is not being used to raise awareness of the English regions but instead is funding the improvement of regional tourist attractions. 

Among the first bid winners are Golf Tourism England, UK Countryside Tours, Visit Kent and the South West Coast Path.

Research company BDRC Continental was commissioned by VisitEngland to undertake a substantial programme of tailored secondary research, so bidders had access to existing market intelligence that they could use in their bids. 

BDRC Continental director Steve Mills says the research emphasised the challenge the tourist industry faces in convincing inbound visitors to travel out of London (see box). The barriers that exist for the rest of England include a lack of knowledge of attractions in the regions, the fact that London is such an exciting draw, and poor and expensive transport when travelling outside the capital.

But there are regional success stories, such as Wales, which has seen a 15% increase in visitors in the past year.

“Our research and insight helps Discover England Fund-bidders to demonstrate that there is a real need for what they want to spend the money on,” says Mills. “Over the next few months we will produce a number of themed reports looking at what activities are available in the UK, outline the different attractions for people at various life stages, and publish a report on the regional gateways, such as Manchester and Newcastle.”

BDRC Continental also monitors business sentiment among tourism businesses to discover how optimistic or pessimistic attraction and hotel owners are about the future. The mood is positive post the Brexit vote, says Mills, thanks to a weak pound that is tempting more inbound visitors and boosting the domestic market in stay-cations. 

Another initiative helping to boost tourism outside of London is the government’s GREAT Britain £100m public/private sector tactical marketing campaign. 

It was introduced around the London Olympics 2012 to promote Britain’s culture, shopping, sport, food and countryside. It has included links to the movies Skyfall and Paddington, a takeover of Bloomingdales in New York and a global TV campaign. Commercial partners have included British Airways, DFDS Seaways, P&O Ferries, EasyJet, American Express, Virgin and Yahoo.

And, while VisitBritain outsources most of its research to agencies, it does still find time to carry out small-scale surveys itself. 

For instance, it recently asked tour guides who take Chinese visitors around London what their participants liked and disliked. It seems that finding food they enjoy in the capital is a major challenge.

If VisitBritain is successful in attracting visitors and increasing spending, then the UK economy gets a boost. In 2015/16 it exceeded government targets, with every pound spent on the agency generating £23 from each international visitor, and its strategic research projects were crucial to that value generation.