Human behaviour is notoriously difficult to predict, as pollsters on both sides of the pond discovered in 2016. But then we’ve always known that, haven’t we? If a fire suddenly breaks out in a confined space, how do you accurately predict human response? How do you know who will be frozen in fear, who will dash for the exit, who will heroically leap to rescue others or, in this internet age, stop to snap and tweet the event? Difficult to tell, isn’t it? 

By contrast, it should be easy to predict the result of an event that is virtually a replay of a previous one, shouldn’t it? Well, no. The ability of human beings to ignore the lessons of history is boundless. As investor Sir John Templeton rightly observed, “it is different this time” are the five most expensive words in stock market history. 

A ‘Big Four’ UK bank’s purchase of a mortgage bank in California more than 30 years ago elicited the Financial Times headline: ‘Midland comes a cropper on the Crocker’. Yet, 20 years later, a leading global bank took over the Midland – and acquired HFC in the US with similarly disastrous consequences. So, not only do we not learn from our mistakes, but collective memory also fails us.

Hence the rarity of common sense, since prior experience – either personal or collective – is ignored in our relentless dash forwards, in our failure ever to look backwards, even when it helps make sense of what’s in front of us. A look at an arbitrary collection of events proves, if proof were needed, that common sense is anything but common – it’s as rare as hens’ teeth. 

We all know strong brands are valuable, so you wouldn’t pay a huge amount of goodwill and then ditch a vibrant brand, would you? That’s what one media owner did on acquiring Jazz FM – remember the colourful chameleon? – and changed its name to JFM. Similarly, a plc rebranded from Yell to Hibu. Quite. 

Experience, history tells us, counts when it comes to running a business, and yet CEOs with either no experience or bad experience have been appointed to head big organisations – like a four-time bankrupt with no retail skills chosen to run a major high street brand, or a supermarket boss who piled ’em high and sold ’em cheap to head a former building society turned bank. Both experiments ended in disaster. Predictable really. Except it wasn’t predicted by those who should have known better.

Also, everyone knows that punters love a bargain better than anything else, and yet – about 25 years ago – Hoover launched a promotion to get rid of a large surplus of stock by offering free airline tickets to customers who purchased more than £100-worth of its products. Hoover had not anticipated that huge numbers of customers would buy the qualifying products – not because they wanted the actual appliances, but simply to get hold of the free tickets.  

Governments are equally culpable in their lack of common sense, with Gordon Brown famously pre-announcing his planned sale of the nation’s gold reserves (strangely, the price fell) and, more recently, George Osborne tempted fate with his announcement of the planned reduction of the government’s stake in Lloyds Banking Group in early 2016. It didn’t happen as promised. 

Sometimes an entire industry behaves in ways that are counter-intuitive. For example, during the cold winter month of February, high street retailers bring out their summer collections (ideal for those planning a Caribbean holiday) and then in August, when the English summer finally arrives, they whip out the winter coats. Bizarre, in an age of fast fashion.

Sometimes the laws of unintended consequences also defy common sense. Banning tobacco advertising is one of those where the government effectively cut the tobacco firms’ biggest cost, diverting funds to invest and expand in emerging markets. Not the intention.

No piece on common sense is complete without the view of a London cabbie – the ultimate repository of common sense. The latest of which is the revelation – to the horror of almost every black cab driver – that London’s new road modernisation plan has been devised by a Brummie who doesn’t drive. Go figure, as they say in New York, which brings us nicely back to those pesky polls. 

Lorna Tilbian is executive plc director and head of media at Numis Securities