Time for an upgrade

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How long is a generation? In demographic terms, 20-30 years seems to be the average, but in the videogame market, a generation usually lasts five years. This current generation, though – dominated by Sony’s PlayStation 3 and Microsoft’s Xbox 360 – has run long: going on seven years, in fact. And gamers are itching to get their hands on some new kit.

The wait is nearly over. In August, at Gamescom in Cologne, Germany, Sony announced that PlayStation 4 would be available to buy in Europe on 29 November. It’ll launch two weeks earlier in the US. Microsoft, meanwhile, is due to launch its new Xbox, the Xbox One, on 22 November.

Sony claims it’s had a record number of pre-orders for the PS4 – upwards of one million, according to Sony Computer Entertainment UK boss Fergal Gara. But as good as the pre-sales figures might be, they pale in comparison to the total lifetime sales of PS3 and Xbox 360. Between them, the older consoles have shifted more than 140m units – which is both a blessing and a curse for Sony and Microsoft.

A large install base means a big upsell opportunity, but it also means that it’s in the interests of games publishers and games designers to keep creating products for the older machines. All this year’s big titles – Call of Duty: Ghosts, FIFA 14 and Assassin’s Creed IV: Black Flag – will appear on the 360 and PS3, as well as the Xbox One and PS4, while arguably the year’s most anticipated title, Grand Theft Auto V, is exclusive to the older machines.

GTA is a console-shifter, says Jules Williams, a client executive at Kantar Worldpanel. “GTA is a rare title that has appeal for both hardcore gamers and mainstream shoppers who only occasionally spend money on video games. The fact that GTA V is not appearing on next-gen consoles at launch might be a distraction from the console releases and will make it difficult for next-gen to capture these mainstream shoppers”, Williams suggests.

Similarly distracting is the fact that the three other big titles mentioned are all coming out on the older consoles several weeks before the new ones arrive. Many fans will pick up these titles on release, rather than sit twiddling their thumbs (so to speak) while waiting for the new consoles.

Publishers acknowledge this and are taking steps to counter it. For example, Activision announced during Gamescom that it would let those who buy the PS3 version of Call of Duty: Ghosts upgrade to the PS4 version for just €10. The console upgrades themselves, of course, cost significantly more than that: €499 for the Xbox One (the third iteration) or €399 for PS4. It’s a steep ask, but Williams reckons both consoles can bank on strong sales on launch through to the end of the Christmas period.

“In every product lifecycle, you always have the hardcore early adopters, and PS4 and Xbox One have definitely convinced the hardcore base,” he says.

The real challenge will come next year when Sony and Microsoft turn their attentions to the latecomers, hoping to convince them to join the party.

Pictures: Gamescom, via Flickr