Behavioural science predicted a No vote says Cialdini

Speaking at a meeting yesterday of the London Behavioural Economics Network to promote his book The Small Big, the Regents’ professor emeritus of psychology and marketing at Arizona State University said that a reluctance to change among the undecided voters would tip the balance in favour of the No vote.

Today, after the referendum result was announced in favour of the No vote — 55% voted against Independence to 45% in favour — Cialdini (pictured) said he was heartened that a prediction that came from a knowledge of behavioural science, and not a knowledge of the politics of the situation, was affirmed by the election results.

“The behavioural science finding that applies is that when people are uncertain there are psychological consequences. They’re reluctant to change; they sit on the fence and they stay with the status quo. And that’s because they’re afraid of losing. When you’re unsure you don’t want to take a step into the unknown because of the negative consequences that may come.

“When I arrived in the UK three days ago, I saw the polls were very tight, even one with the Yes vote winning, but I also saw that there were 10 – 12% voters uncertain. There was an expectation that flowed directly from that piece of knowledge – it meant that in a close election the Nos were going to win, because No meant don’t change, and avoid the possibility of loss,” he said.