UK advertising revenue could fall 13% in 2020, report finds

GroupM’s Mid-year media forecast report found that the decline in the UK advertising market in 2020 was expected to be one percentage point worse than that seen in 2009 during the global financial crisis.

But the company reported that the industry was starting to stabilise following an initial freefall beginning in late March when lockdown conditions were imposed on the UK due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Digital advertising will see the smallest fall in 2020, according to the report, with a decline of 8% and expected rebound growth of 11% in 2021.

E-commerce advertising was expected to rise 45% in 2020 and another 66% the year after, reaching a potential £2.2bn revenue a year by 2024, the report estimates.

Television advertising was expecting a 15% reduction in 2020, according to the report, and 13% growth the next year.

Print advertising was expecting a 24% drop in 2020 and bouncing back by 18% in 2021.

Out-of-home advertising is expected to fall 35% this year, increasing by 23% in 2021, the report indicates.

Audio media advertising would decline 16% and rise 14% next year, according to the report, but digital streaming services were predicted to double revenues between 2021 and 2024.

The report’s forecasts are based on observations of GroupM’s clients.