Tea and Sympathy
What a to-do about DIY
Back from holidays and off to the Esomar Congress next week and so have been looking around at what seems to be the hot topic this year. Lots of stuff around new approaches based on conversations not questions (although some of us have been banging on about this for a while), but the other intriguing thing that keeps coming up is clients doing DIY research.
This seems to make a lot of sense to me now that we have global panels and straightforward questionnaire design software. For basic concept or copy testing why not make them cheap and simple? What about brand tracking – what extra value do most agencies add beyond a chart showing key metrics going up or down?
The interesting thing to me is what the DIY trend does to our industry. Will it mean that client side research departments get bigger and agencies smaller? Could it mean an explosion of smaller agencies dedicated to helping clients interpret and analyse the data they have collected? Will it increase the number of branded approaches to things like concept testing with a focus on norms, or will it destroy these approaches in favour of universally-agreed basic testing criteria?
Whatever happens it should be interesting and I suspect will mean major changes over the next five years. As long as no-one comes up with DIY qual (oh no, online buzz analytics)!
6% of people will say anything!
Just listening to a creative director friend of mine talking about ethics amoung consumers and mentioning that 9% of them claim they will pay more than 50% extra for ‘ethical’ products.
I am sure some of them would but this number seems very high. It reminded me of the recent poll in Russia which suggested that 8% of Russians thought the country’s football team would win the World Cup, despite them not qualifying for the tournament!
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6603PG20100701
Having seen this small 5-8% of people saying some very strange things across many surveys over the years I think we should just accept that all surveys seem to have 5-8% of people who are effectively laughing at the survey. It reminds me of the great Calvin and Hobbes cartoon:
http://www.stat.psu.edu/old_resources/Cartoons/cartoon014.gif
So what should we do about these folks. In some ways they make the results a bit more interesting but clearly not more correct. So presumably we should have some sort of industry standard to always over recruit and then delete these folks, no idea how to do this but I am sure someone has?!
A nasty year in the US
The Honomichl figures are out and it seems the industry in the US declined by 3.5% last year. Given inflation of almost 2% I suppose it is an effective decline of closer to 5% – this in an industry that is supposed to be recession-proof!
Perhaps more interesting than the overall figure is the different changes by company. The agencies I think of as more ad hoc – Synovate, GfK, Kantar – had the worst of it with 10%+ declines. The larger syndicated companies – IMS Health, Nielsen et al – seemed to fair better and some even grew. So clearly the syndicated area stood up much better than the ad hoc (and probably tracking) parts of the industry.
Other notable performances include Communispace growing 18% and Dunnhumby growing 33%. So it is possible to thrive in this type of environement but it is the newer and more innovative companies that are doing it. So what does the relative strength of combined data sources (syndicated), pure data analytics (Dunnhumby) and interesting new consumer engagement techniques (Communispace) say about the direction of our industry?
If you put syndicated data at one end of a spectrum of closeness to consumers and ethnography at the other (one all about the consumer and one bearing little relation to any individual) it seems that it is the methods in the middle (ad hoc quant and tracking) that are getting squeezed…..
So how is the upturn for you?
Looking around at the press recently seems to suggest things are picking up. WPP are on the acquisition war path, Synovate say that "organic growth is within sight" and Cello has had a "strong performance" in Q1. So are we back to growth then?
Chatting to folks in the industry in a purely unscientifc, qualitative sort of way, suggests that the smaller / mid sized companies have had a better time of it than the majors and that recovery is happening but in a very tentative manner.
Here we have had a good first quarter but are not so sure about Q2. On the good side clients seem to have budgets to spend again and are looking at new ways to spend it having reevaluated everything during the Great Recession. On the bad side budgets still aren't where they were and everything seems to take longer and require far more signatures!
So how are things looking out there, any ideas on client and agency trends?
Poll Shock: 100% of Grandsons Talented
The research industry is in its most high profile mode and you can’t read a newspaper without the likes of ICM or YouGov being talked about in the press. With all this talk about polls it reminded me of my favourite poll so far from the great Onion site:
Poll: 100% Of Grandsons Talented
Happy polling season…..
TNS and MESH win big!
The RLF (Research Liberation Front) event this year was designed to liberate art from research. They set up a gallery of objects taken from the research world to see if they could be counted as art and the overall feelings seemed to be a resounding yes….
Many research companies contributed things such as respondent drawings from groups, videos of research being done online, early stage concepts developed for research and diaries from respondents lives. These were arranged in a gallery space at the Young Vic Theatre and judged both by popular vote and by a professional art critic.
The winner of the popular vote was a piece from TNS showing respondent generated feedback about the Cadbury’s Flake brand and some of these quotes bordered on the saucy! The piece itself was very nicely laid out and had clearly impressed both the client and the assembled crowd.
The art critic chose a piece from MESH which was a book made from recycled questionnaires. Beautifully bound it apparently subverted our understanding of research!!
As ever a fun night out from the RLF and a welcome juxtaposition to the main conference event…..
RLF is back - Raiders of the Lost Art
So the RLF are back and this year they are asking for contributions from everyone from the world of research…. Please join in and visit them on their website:
http://researchliberationfront.com/
This year they are turning the spotlight onto the creativity of research…. As they say:
“We are providing a showcase for all the creativity and treasure that the world of research has produced. This is the work that gathers dust under desks or that you trip over when it’s leaning up next to the wall or something you felt was so good it deserves its share of the limelight. We’re talking work lovingly prepared by participants; collages, videos, mood boards, diaries etc., something put together by an agency, be it a hero chart, a slide from a presentation, or something produced by a client! Ultimately, we are looking for anything, nothing is too small, too big or too weird – we are raiding the industry for lost treasure as the RLF asks, is this ART?
In this vein, the RLF are setting up a gallery close to the location of the party at the end of the first day of the conference. We plan a viewing event that will be easy for any conference delegate (or anybody else for that matter) to attend.
So here’s the brief. We are approaching the leading research agencies and clients in the country to ask them to submit a piece which they feel deserves to be considered as an artwork. We are approaching art professionals to review the works in the exhibition. And yes, there will be prizes awarded!”
Do go to the website for more details (click on the events bit) and hopefully see you there for a glass of something and a look at what our industry can turn up in the name of art!!
Farewell Peter Cooper
Just saw the sad news about Peter Cooper’s death. I didn’t know him well but knew his reputation, had read a paper or two and seen him speak which was a pleasure. He once made a point of coming up to me after one of my first conference speeches to say ‘well done’, a simple gesture but one that was genuinely appreciated and made me feel very much better having started out a nervous wreck!
I suppose all I can say is that he was definitely a great researcher, seemed like a very good guy and someone we should all be very pleased to have had the benefit of in our profession. Thanks Peter, you left our industry better off than you found it.
Friendship groups are fun!
Just finished running some friendship groups with housewives for a major yoghurt brand. We recruited a main respondent hitting specific criteria and then helped them recruit some of her friends with similar profiles. The groups were then held in the main respondents home.
We have done this type of thing before but this was the first time in a few years that I have moderated them and I was reminded of why they are such a good approach.
Firstly they are great fun. The group of friends needs no warm up or introduction, they just launch into general banter about themselves and their lives. They laugh at, challenge, criticise and hassle each other and the moderator the whole way through.
Secondly they keep each other real. It is very difficult to pose, exaggerate or be economical with the truth in front of friends. They pick you up on stuff! If you say you go to the theatre every weekend they will laugh and say you are more likely to be seen at home watching TV! All the pretences you can go through with ‘normal’ groups just fade away.
And finally they get to the point much quicker and better. There is no pussy footing around the issue, they tell you exactly what they feel and why, often without any prompting at all.
So I am now advocating friendship groups whenever I can, and as I am now amongst friends does anyone agree?!
Who is the Steve Jobs of research?
Just back from running some groups in the US where Apple came up a lot (guess the category!) and while I was there Steve Jobs launched the new Apple iPad. It struck me that Steve Jobs himself launched the product, not an internal inventor or a marketing guy but the CEO himself. Of course we have come to expect this from him and other technology CEO’s, they are often very innovative individuals with a passion for their products.
But where is the equivalent in research? Most big research company CEO’s strike me as good (or bad) business people, more deal makes than innovators. I must admit I don’t know many personally so that is just my impression.
If I am right then this may help explain the lack of innovation our industry suffers from, direction tends to come from the top and if they are focussed on deals and accounts then of course that will be what the rest of the people worry about.
Any ideas? For starters I would have said Adrian Chedore at Synovate but he has now retired, John Kearon at Brainjuicer qualifies as an innovative CEO but they are still relatively small. I would love to be proved wrong!
A good client briefing
Just back from a business briefing at T-Mobile. It was for about 10 or so research agencies and was all about their plans for the year and how we could hopefully help out. I have been to these types of things before but not enough, they are a great way of understanding clients key objectives and also getting to know them and their issues better.
Besides, this being the small industry it is we also got the chance to catch up and gossip with some friendly competitors. It helps us see the bigger picture and fosters what clients are always after, integrated thinking across agencies for the good of the business.
On the train back it did make me wonder why we don’t do this more. Of course these things take time and resource, are not urgent priorities and can easily be put off. The payoff isn’t immediate and probably not obvious. But it does make a difference. Certainly from our side we know the wider business issues better and so can make more realistic suggestions and recommendations but more than that we will be generally more engaged.
But before getting critical of other clients not doing the same thing it did make me think what the equivalent would be for us as an agency to do. Presumably we should invite all our suppliers over, discuss with them and staff the vision for the next 12 months, listen to what they think before pushing ahead. Oh dear, better start arranging some more meetings then!!
Happy 2009?
Well that was quite some year. Personally it has been a drift from blind panic to mild optimism. From an industry perspective this year must be the worst on record. But with most of the bad news being in the first half of the year perhaps we can look forward to better things in 2010.
Of course there have been quite a few victims, people laid off and lots of poor graduates not being able to find roles. I have particular sympathy for them as I graduated into the recession of the early 1990's and know how hard it can be to find that first job in tough times.
Also there has been a lot of talk about how the research industry will look coming out of the 'Great Recession' as I believe it is now called. Public sector work will obviously take a hit next year, perhaps the huge brand tracking / customer sat studies will be looked at even harder in terms of ROI and what about clients doing their own surveys using online panels or communities?
Either way there will of course be opportunities for us agency types. As long as we add value then we should get through the upheavals. But I didn't really want this to be a piece about next year, lets just say thanks for getting through this one and enjoy Xmas!
Cheers
Steve
Awards night
Feeling largely OK today, a little fuzzy from the wine last night but overall not too bad. We (MESH In this case) were up for a couple of awards last night but sadly they didn’t come through. On the other hand it was a good do and always fun to catch up with other people in the industry.
As Rita Clifton mentioned in her speech it does feel like the year has been a game of two halves. The last industry bash I went to was an ESOMAR conference in February where the mood was distinctly sombre (and those were the people who hadn’t cancelled!). But last night people seemed to be looking forward to 2010 and thinking that 2009 hadn’t been quite as bad as they had at one time feared.
It was also good to see a variety of different agencies win awards and some new companies coming through (the nominee list for Best Agency was particularly refreshing). Hopefully bodes well for the industry in the coming years. Having spoken to a few people outside research about their industry awards nights it also seems we have the best food!
Christmas Rush
We are in the middle of the traditional pre-Christmas rush. We have several debriefs and workshops this week, clients still calling to see if they can get a few groups done this year and the standard conversations about the fact that trying to recruit interviews for Xmas eve is not a good idea!
All this is what happens every year and I have spoken to several friends in other agencies who are of course going through the same things too. However, at the beginning of the year if you told me we would be facing the same pre-Christmas rush as we always do I would have been very pleased indeed. In fact the idea of any rush in what has been billed as the worst recession since the 30's was looking far away indeed.
So this year instead of moaning about the rush I am celebrating and embracing it. No complaints about running around the country like a mad man, instead just happiness (and a lot of relief) that our delightful rush is still here!
The Joys of Research
It may be freezing in Moscow but I am feeling pretty happy right now. We are doing a pan European project on bathrooms and so I am here to listen to bathroom customers and suppliers. Not a subject I knew much about before but one in which I am rapidly becoming more expert.
The thing I so enjoy and about research, and why I have stuck with it, is you get these opportunities to explore new categories, places and people. As ever I am struck by how much more binds us than separates us as I listen to bathroom buyers across Europe talk about themselves and their homes and tell their bathroom purchase stories. It reminds me, sorry to get sentimental but it is 20 years since the wall came down, of the old Sting line “I hope the Russians love their children too” which I can assure you they do!
It is always good to get these moments, especially in tough times, when you can honestly say that our industry is both fun and interesting. For anyone with a basic curiosity about the people and the world around them, there is not another profession to rival it!
Who loves procurement?
We have been having some interesting times with, and discussion about, procurement recently. My feelings about procurement within clients used to be a mix of fear and confusion. I don’t know any procurement people personally yet they do seem to be playing a greater role in my business life. So should I now try to embrace them? And what would that mean anyway?
Certainly the procurement concept has revolutionised marketing. Within the marketing discipline they seem to have focussed on media first, thus splitting up the media and advertising folks. Then they started on advertising and made them charge on a per day basis and now they are looking at research.
What does this do for our pricing model? What will they want from us and what will they offer? Of course there will be some pressure on margins as they are there to negotiate but surely they will be offering something else in return?
Also it must be hard for them coming to grips with the research industry. We are far more fragmented than either media or advertising, no big clients have just one research agency! So how can we educate them on the reasons for this or do we have to take a long hard look at why research is like this in the first place?
Anyway, at this stage I would just love some ideas or thoughts. I really am not sure what we should be doing but suspect doing nothing is the worst option of all…..
All for the client?
OK, so PR is all about spinning a good story, I know this. But it still gets a bit tired when you see another corporate announcement of a JV, merger or acquisition in the research space that the CEO firmly states as being "all for the benefit of our clients". The recent sharing of back office tasks by two large US companies springs to mind, sharing back office tasks makes sense and is clearly a way of reducing costs so why even try to spin the client angle.
Does anyone believe any of this, am I just incredibly cynical? To be honest why can't we just say the merger / JV etc. is for the benefit of shareholders as it will reduce costs and so increase profits. Is that so bad? Surely the industry is mature enough to accept this as the key reason without having to spout the same platitudes about clients.
My old company (which shall remain nameless) used to do the same thing as we bought up company after company across the world. Of course we didn't buy them for the sake of our clients but because we wanted to expand.
We know scale can help in some situations but we also know that CEO's of major companies think first about their company / share price and secondly about clients (as a way to increase their share price). Again, is this so bad that we need to pretent something else is true?
Prince Charles and his faster horse
Prince Charles has recently asked for local residents to have a say in planning permissions for new buildings in the wake of his objections to the Lord Rogers designs for the Chelsea Barracks. He objected to these plans on the basis that they were “unsypathetic and unsuitable” for the area. His idea seems to be to ask local residents in the hope that they would object to ‘new’ designs.
He is probably right in the sense that people often object to new things in research surveys if asked the right (wrong) questions. Henry Ford famously said that if he had asked customers he would have designed a faster horse.
These are the typical faults attributed to market research but seem to me to be not a criticism of research but instead a criticism of bad research. Of course people often ask for more of the same but only if the question is posed in the wrong way.
Ask people if they are proud of the London skyline and wish for a truly international and cutting edge city and they would probably say something different. Look at their motivations for living in London and why they are proud of where they live and I suspect great architecture would feature highly.
So lets not give reactionaries the excuse of research for repeating old designs and products and instead lets focus research on understanding basic human motivations and beliefs. In that way we will be able to inspire new designers (of buildings and products) instead of stifling them. That is what research should aim for.
Green shoots?
So how are things with you now that everything is supposedly feeling better? One of our fieldwork suppliers told me the other day that they had their busiest August ever. We are certainly seeing some things pick up and at the Research Club event last night the research community seemed both lively (helped by the free booze of course) and upbeat.
Of course the typical project is still smaller and costs more scrutinized than a year or so ago but at least we seemed to have turned the corner. Some of the results coming out from the big guys recently seem very poor with revenue declines of 10% or more but these are presumably old news and things will look up from here. I for one am certainly optimistic that things are and will continue to pick up but, as with the consensus, probably that the pick up will not be exactly ferocious.
So, being a Friday, I will toast green shoots this evening and just hope that everyone is feeling the same way, as that will of course make it true!!!
Delay days
We recently received two emails in one day from different clients delaying work they were about to commission and saying that they will revisit things in a few months. This seems to have been the pattern of the last 6 months and of course it is frustrating for both us and the clients themselves.
I was talking to an old business hand who has been through several recessions and what he said seemed to crystallise the situation: “In a recession your competition becomes ‘do nothing’ and not the other firm.” Similarly I was having a drink with an old friend who also happens to work in research on the client side, but he works for a low-price food manufacturer in the US. Now, as market positions go, being on the low-price staples side is a pretty good place to be right now and they are in fact seeing significant growth. But even they have caught the recession mood and have a pay and hiring freeze on, largely because they can.
So I suspect delay days are here for a while, at least until budgets become clearer. The question in the back of my mind is how much is delay and how much is cancellation; it’s this lack of knowledge that is most difficult as it makes planning so hard.
But on the bright side, a project that was almost commissioned four months ago but then delayed has finally come through. So perhaps they really are delays after all….
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