Opinion polls are ‘junk' says Blair advisor

UK-- “Ninety five per cent of opinion polls are junk in terms of decision making,” Tony Blair's former chief advisor on political strategy told Research 2009 today.

In a presentation on how research impacts government and society, Matthew Taylor, who is now chief executive of the Royal Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufacture and Commerce (RSA), said: “What people think is useless, what they do is more important.”

He said opinion polls could be “dressed up” to portray any result the client commissioning the survey wanted, citing two polls on the subject of housing from his time in government to prove his point.

Taylor said a survey by an environmental group found that 85% of respondents were against building houses in the South East while a similar poll from a construction association found 85% in favour.

Joining Taylor on stage was the Conservative Party's campaign director, George Bridges of Quiller Consultants, who warned: “Any politician who goes just on research will come unstuck.”

Bridges said both major parties are increasing their use of research to deliver “personalisation of government services”, such as health and schools.

Ben Page, Ipsos Mori's managing director of public affairs, chaired the session and told the audience that the government's increased research spend was driven by a desire to “reform and reshape” services and give people “greater consultation” about public services.

However, Page said the expected “huge cuts” in public spending would create a challenge for the research industry.

Author: James Verrinder