Ad spend growth expectations lowered

The prediction for growth in 2011 has fallen since April, when growth of 5.1% was predicted.

Warc’s data editor Suzy Young said: “In just a few months the global economic outlook has worsened considerably and this is reflected in the latest consensus ad forecast. Ad markets in the US and western Europe seem particularly vulnerable. But all will be affected if we go into a double-dip recession.”

Warc’s consensus forecast is based on a weighted average of predictions from ad agencies, analysts and industry bodies, and is more optimistic than Warc’s own forecast of 3.2% (or a decline of 0.1% when adjusted for inflation).

The reduced figure comes after 15 months of gradually improving predictions.

Only three of the 13 countries covered (Russia, China and Canada) saw ad spend predictions increase, while the biggest downward revisions were seen in Italy and Spain, reflecting loss of confidence in those economies due to concerns about national debts.