OPINION7 February 2012

Research in the year 2020

Steve recently sat on a panel looking at where the research world may be in 2020.

A good client of ours recently held a session looking at the future of research and what they should be thinking about for the year 2020. I managed to sneak on to a distinguished panel to discuss this, which included some senior management consultants, ad people, marketers and researchers, who all provided very different perspectives.

The focus was clearly on what client research departments would be doing in eight years’ time and much of the response was about preparing to manage ‘big data’. The consensus was that internal insight people would spend a lot of of time trawling through (or getting others to trawl through) large databases to try and discover insights. I’m sure this mining for insight is very valuable but it struck me, a humble qualitative researcher, as far too complicated.

To me the future is more about how we can understand people and how brands relate to that (note, not the other way round). I think much of the recent advances in qualitative research, particularly more time-based approaches such as communities and the influence of behavioural economics, are helping us do this better. Also, mobile approaches are giving us a much better way of understanding consumers in context, something we as an industry have tried to ignore before.

Of course I know prediction is bound to fail but has anyone got any better ideas?

Steve Phillips

@RESEARCH LIVE

5 Comments

Steve Taylor

12 years ago

I've always thought that taking client data, "big" or small, and looking at what is already known/observed is a good place to start from. Getting factual behavioural data is generally more reliable than asking people to state "what they think they do". Dunnhumby's use of storecard data is a good example of this. If we as researchers can build on that knowledge, then it should mean shorter quant studies. Less "usage" more "attitude" in the U&A mix. Shorter surveys with more focused questions should mean better focus from participants and lower fieldwork costs. I think this is a big opportunity if we're not daunted by non-MR data. Having said that, I certainly agree with you on the mobile approaches!

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Beth Rounds

12 years ago

Steve: This is definitely a hot topic among researchers. In fact, Cambiar Consulting conducted a study on the topic of the Future of Research. You can read our report at www.consultcambiar.com. As to your question, big data or the "river of information" is getting bigger everyday and with the right people and analytical tools, we'll see more emphasis in this area. The challenge is how to synthesize this information to deliver meaning. A good friend used to say, it isn't data mining - it is data meaning! I, like you, are more of a qual type and there is plenty of opportunity to bring social media listenting, communities, mobile and traditional qual together to uncover white space, test and refine ideas, etc.--all in "real-time". The future seems quite bright for all of us - both left brain and right brain folks. That said, I think that many of us will have to learn new skills along the way, become better story tellers and most importantly deliver business impact. If you are an ESOMAR member, download the Global Research Study. The client section is especially meaningful.

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Steve Phillips

12 years ago

Great point Steve, anything to make surveys more focused, useful and easier to complete!! Beth, thanks for the link, I will definitely have a look and yes, I think it is a very interesting time for us in the research industry.

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john griffiths

12 years ago

This is very relevant if only because big data is part of a session at the up and coming MRS conference called Research Fusion which I am chairing in March. So it is kinda top of mind. I'm going to stick my neck out here and suggest that sampling is key to research - almost to the point of saying that if it is a complete data set and not a sample then it isn't research. We don't select samples because of lack of budget or time or resource but because taking a particular perspective is what gives research its power - it illuminates because we aren't trying to deliver a grand unified theory - we construct a model of the real world which makes the real world more comprehensible. The trouble with the real world is that noise overpowers signal. And by sampling we take the first step to raising signal about the level of noise. My problem with vast datasets is that it effectively throws us back into the real world where signal is bedevilled with noise. That is why an illuminating conversation with a series of individuals is so helpful in understanding a marketplace. A few people mirror everybody though they can't possibly do so in full complexity -which is why we recruit them using specific criteria. We construct the sequence of the interview immensely carefully for the same reason. We also reweight what they tell us before telling the marketing team what it means. If all a marketer has to do in 2020 is to roll out of bed first thing in the morning and stick her head under the data powershower to know exactly how to spend her day then as far as I am concerned research is obsolete. My prediction is that it won't be but I predict there will be a lot of marketers suffering from big data tinnitus!

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Andre

12 years ago

It's definitely heading towards big data. I'm a recruiter in the marketing and market research space and am already beginning to see clients start to demand professionals who are capable of this type of data mining for insights. There was also a very interesting article on this from The McKinsey Global Institute called "Big data: The next frontier for innovation, competition, and productivity" - you can read it here: http://www.mckinsey.com/Insights/MGI/Research/Technology_and_Innovation/Big_data_The_next_frontier_for_innovation

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