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So, like 1992, the opinion polls proved wide of the mark. But I wouldn’t throw the baby out with the bathwater. It just goes to show that what really counts isn’t the survey result but actual behaviour, and that polls seem only to really hit the mark when there is a degree of electoral stability.
See: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/8667801.stm
Perhaps what has been most confusing, though, is the degree to which Cleggmania (at least that’s the media headline) fell apart. My own view is that there is a certain implicit social bias in response to researchers.
When the whole media space builds these things up, people feel they have to express agreement with the social buzz and say what feels like the socially correct thing to say – to follow the ‘cultural leaders’ who try to define the moral high-ground.
But this is a very fickle arrangement. What happens ‘in the moment’, in that personal time when an individual decision is made, reflects true desires not those bound by artificial convention or the media definition of what you should do and say.
The question is, how to take account of this type of error in the future.
Steven Walden
Steven Walden is Head of Research at Customer Experience Consultancy, Beyond Philosophy. He has worked in Management Consultancy for the last 14 years including boutique and large strategy houses providing advice and guidance to a cross-industry range of businesses on market planning and consumer behaviour. Within his current role and working closely with leading business schools he has focused on designing measures of emotion and the sub-conscious using techniques from consumer psychology. He is also co-author of a new book coming out in Spring 2010 on Customer Experience Management.Recent Posts
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Readers' comments (1)
Brian Tarran | 7-May-2010 2:25 pm
Not sure the polling errors are quite at 1992 levels, Steve. Predictions of Tory and Labour vote shares were largely on the money – save for a few, like Angus Reid, which had Labour in third place.
The real issue, as you point out, is the overstatement of Lib Dem support. Its something our features editor, Robert Bain, is investigating at the moment.
Post to follow on the Electionwatch blog very soon...
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